Monday Update:

Upending industry forecasts, Sony’s The Equalizer 2 equaled first place this weekend with $36.0 million.

Although the film was widely projected to finish in second place — with some pessimistic predictions even forecasting it in third place — it surpassed most expectations to take the top spot.

The Denzel Washington action sequel started 5.4 percent above the original Equalizer from 2014, which also began in first place. However, the sequel actually fell 9.1 percent behind when adjusting the original for ticket price inflation.

The title widely expected to take first place actually took the runner-up slot instead: Universal’s Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again. The musical sequel opened with $34.9 million.

That’s 25.9 percent above the original Mamma Mia! opening from 2008. Similar to Equalizer 2, though, the sequel opened 3.5 percent behind the original when adjusting for ticket price inflation.

Last weekend’s leader, Sony’s animated sequel Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, captured third place with $23.7 million. The film’s 46.1 percent second-weekend drop was steeper than either of its two predecessors’.

Elsewhere at the box office:

• BH Tilt’s horror Unfriended: Dark Web began in ninth place with $3.6 million.
• Two documentaries topped the seven-figure mark: Neon’s Three Identical Strangers in 14th place with $1.4 million, and Focus Features’ Won’t You Be My Neighbor? in 15th place with $1.3 million.

Comparisons

Total box office this week was $171.6 million.

That’s up 3.6 percent over last weekend, but down 5.1 percent behind this same weekend last year, when both hits Dunkirk and Girls Trip opened.

Year to date box office stands at $7.07 billion. That’s up 8.5 percent behind this same date last year, down from the +8.8 percent the box office stood following last weekend.

Our table of weekend actuals is below, after our Sunday update featuring fuller analysis.

Sunday Update:

The reign of the summer sequels continues.

On the one hand, that’s no surprise: for the tenth weekend in a row, sequels and/or prequels dominated the top two spots at the North American box office. The surprise came with the order of the top two films. While Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again was widely expected to debut in first place, according to studio estimates it was narrowly beaten out by a stronger-than-anticipated opening for the action follow-up The Equalizer 2.

Coming in a tad higher than the first Equalizer‘s $34.1 million, the Denzel Washington follow-up grossed an estimated $35.8 million on 3,388 screens. That far exceeded the studio’s expectations going into the weekend, as their conservative projections had it finishing in the ballpark of $25 million. While the follow-up had only a so-so average of 51% on Rotten Tomatoes, when it comes to male-driven movies of this ilk, critical notices tend not to matter as much. Indeed, opening day audiences awarded the R-rated film an “A” Cinemascore, suggesting that its target demo was more than satisfied.

Denzel Washington’s breakout turn as a former CIA black ops agent who comes out of retirement to avenge society’s ills echoes what Liam Neeson did with the Taken franchise, which similarly gave that actor a late-career boost as a bona fide action star. For comparison’s sake, Taken 2 debuted to $49.5 million in October 2012 vs. the first film’s $24.7 million, though its descent down the charts was considerably more rapid than its predecessor and it ultimately finished with a lower total in North America ($139.8 million vs. $145 million). Given that Equalizer 2 opened almost exactly in line with the first film in that series, it will be interesting to see if it can similarly top $100 million domestically by the end of its run. For the record, this is Washington’s fourth film with director Antoine Fuqua and their third hit, with the only misfire from the two being the Western revival The Magnificent Seven back in 2016.

Almost exactly ten years after the first Mamma Mia! debuted to $27.7 million, Universal’s Here We Go Again improved upon that film’s performance (even adjusting for inflation) with an estimated $34.3 million in its opening weekend. While an impressive total, that’s slightly below what many were predicting, allowing Equalizer 2 to sneak away with the weekend crown (at least according to estimates). Reviews for the sequel were much stronger than for the original (78% to 54% on Rotten Tomatoes), while the Cinemascore for both was an encouraging “A-“. It’s worth noting that the opening weekend audience for the follow-up was massively female (83% to 17%), while 64% were over the age of 25.

Given its higher opening weekend tally, it will be interesting to see how Here We Go Again holds up in the weeks ahead. The first Mamma Mia! was a leggy performer, never dropping more than 40 percent weekend-to-weekend in its first two months of release and ultimately finishing with $144.1 million in North America, representing a fantastic 5.2x weekend-to-final multiplier. Perhaps a more apt comparison for Here We Go Again would be 2015’s Pitch Perfect 2, which debuted to a massive $69.2 million but proved considerably more front-loaded than the first movie, ultimately finishing with $184.2 million and a 2.6x weekend-to-final multiplier. If Here We Go Again were to follow a similar trajectory, we’d be looking at a final gross somewhere in the range of $90 million, though it seems likely to surpass the $100 million mark if the first film’s leggy performance is any indication. Despite losing out on a No. 1 debut (though there’s a slight possibility that could change once final grosses come in tomorrow), this is a fantastic opening that proves the Mamma Mia! franchise is alive and well after a decade-long hiatus.

Last weekend’s champ Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation dropped 47 percent from its $44 million debut last weekend, bringing in an estimated $23.1 million in its sophomore frame and a strong total of $91 million after ten days. Though that’s a heftier dip than either of the first two films in their respective sophomore frames, HT3 has benefitted from strong midweek business given its release at the height of summer when most kids are out of school. Next weekend could prove to be a more competitive frame in terms of the family audience, as it will be contending with the release of Warner Bros.’ animated Teen Titans Go! To The Movies.

In fourth place, Disney-Marvel’s Ant-Man and The Wasp dipped another 44 percent to an estimated $16.1 million, giving the MCU sequel a healthy $164.4 million after three weeks of release. That puts the film roughly 24 percent ahead of the first Ant-Man at the same point in its run and within spitting distance of that movie’s $180.2 million final total. It should easily surpass that amount by the end of next weekend, as well as the lifetime totals of MCU stablemates Captain America: The First Avenger ($176.6 million) and Thor ($181 million).

Continuing strong in fifth places was Disney’s Incredibles 2, which took in an estimated $11.5 million in weekend number six. Easing just 29 percent from its performance last weekend, Disney-Pixar’s animated blockbuster now stands at a massive $557.3 million in North America, with still plenty of wind left in its sails.

In sixth place, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom added an estimated $11 million to its total, giving it a fantastic $383.9 million cume after five weeks in theaters and vaulting it to No. 34 on the all-time domestic chart.

Dropping all the way down to seventh place in its second weekend was Universal’s Skyscraper, which dipped to an estimated $10.9 million, or about 56 percent below its opening weekend gross. That gives the action film just $46.7 million after ten days of release, a considerably lower total than a typical Dwayne Johnson vehicle at the same point in its run. By comparison, April’s Rampage had $65.6 million after ten days of release, while San Andreas had $98.4 million. Indeed, based on its current trajectory Skyscraper is shaping up to be a rare misfire for the actor on the domestic front, and it should finish in roughly the same territory as last year’s similarly-underperforming Baywatch, which finished its run with $58 million in North America. That said, the film is making up considerable ground overseas (see below).

Eighth went to Universal horror prequel The First Purge, which brought in an estimated $4.98 million for a total of $60.1 million after 17 days of release.

The weekend’s other wide opener was horror sequel Unfriended: Dark Web, which grossed an okay $3.4 million in 1,546 locations. That’s a far cry from the $15.8 million debut of the first Unfriended back in April 2015, though that film had a much wider release (2,739 theaters) courtesy of Universal (Dark Web was released by Blumhouse distributor BH Tilt). Nonetheless, this is a low-budget effort that stands as one of BH Tilt’s better debuts, standing alongside such titles as this year’s Upgrade ($4.6 million opening) and 2016’s The Darkness ($4.9 million opening).

Rounding out the Top 10 is Annapurna’s critically-acclaimed Sorry To Bother You, which added 245 locations and dipped 33 percent to an estimated $2.8 million in its second weekend of wide release (and its third weekend overall). The cume for the Boots Riley-directed film now stands at $10.2 million.

Limited Release:

Lionsgate released Blindspotting on 14 screens and earned an estimated $332,500, good for a healthy per-screen average of $23,750. The drama, which follows a man (Daveed Diggs) on his final three days of probation in Oakland, California, was boosted by strong critical reviews (it currently stands at 91% on Rotten Tomatoes) and is slated for a national expansion next weekend.

Also opening in limited release was Bleecker Street’s McQueen, which debuted to an estimated $96,928 in just four theaters. That gave the documentary on late fashion designer Alexander McQueen a sturdy per-screen average of $24,232.

After debuting last weekend to the best per-screen average of the year so far, A24’s Eighth Grade continued strong in its expansion to 33 screens with an estimated $794,370. That represents another strong per-screen average of $24,072 and a total of $1.1 million as it inches towards a wide national rollout on August 3.

Overseas Update:

Despite underperforming Stateside, Skyscraper was the No. 1 film overseas this weekend thanks to a boffo opening in China, where it brought in $47.7 million. That’s slightly below the $55 million opening of Rampage and the $52.5 million opening of San Andreas in the country, which has become an increasingly key component of Johnson’s continuing bankability as an international box office star. Skyscraper‘s international total now stands at $129.2 million and its global cume is $179.5 million.

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again debuted to a strong $42.4 million in 41 markets, giving it a worldwide debut to $76.7 million. Notable openings included the U.K. and Ireland ($13.1 million) and Australia ($5 million).

Hotel Transylvania 3 racked up an estimated $37.7 million in 51 markets, bringing its international total to $115.6 million and its global total to $206.7 million.

Ant-Man and the Wasp took in an estimated $21.6 million internationally, giving it an overseas cume of $188.9 million and a global total of $353.5 million.

Incredibles 2 inched ever closer to the $1 billion global mark this weekend with an estimated $36.5 million overseas, bringing its worldwide total to $940.4 million. It posted strong openings in both Korea and Hong Kong and has yet to open in several key markets including Japan, Spain, Italy, and Germany.

With another $17.3 million overseas, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom‘s international total now stands at a dino-sized $813 million and $1.196 billion globally.

Weekend Actuals (Domestic)

FRI, JUL. 20 – SUN, JUL. 22

Studio Weekend Estimates (Domestic)

FRI, JUL. 20 – SUN, JUL. 22

The post Weekend Actuals: ‘Equalizer 2’ Surprise No. 1 w/ $36.0M; ‘Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again’ Settles for 2nd w/ $34.9M appeared first on BoxOffice Pro.

Saturday Update: Paramount reports Mission: Impossible – Fallout bowed to a strong $23 million opening day on Friday, including Thursday night’s $6 million early grosses. Updated projection models now position the film’s opening weekend close to $60-63 million, landing generally close to expectations. Reception is strong across the board with an “A” CinemaScore for the film, a 94 percent Flixster user score, and 97 percent from Rotten Tomatoes critics, further suggesting another long, late summer run from Tom Cruise’s venerable blockbuster franchise.

Here’s how Fallout‘s opening day stacked up at the box office against comparable titles:

• 4 percent ahead of War for the Planet of the Apes ($22.1 million)
• 1.7 percent ahead of Jason Bourne ($22.6 million)
• 3.4 percent ahead of Star Trek Beyond ($22.3 million)
• 13.3 percent ahead of Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation ($20.3 million)

Further analysis and international updates for the sixth Mission to follow on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Teen Titans GO! to the Movies proved to be more frontloaded on Thursday evening than expected. The film took in $4.25 million on opening day Friday, with nearly one-quarter of those earnings coming from Thursday shows. This indicates a more fan-heavy turnout than pre-release tracking had suggested, although the ‘toon’s own positive reviews — and the film’s minimal competition through the remainder of summer — could help it generate respectable staying power in the days and weeks ahead. Current projections for the weekend suggest a frame between $11-14 million.

Early weekend estimates are below with official projections from Fox, Sony (excluding Sicario: Day of the Soldado), and Universal. Updated estimates from all major studios to follow on Sunday.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, JUL. 27 – SUN, JUL. 29

===

Friday Update: Paramount reports this morning that Mission: Impossible – Fallout brought in an estimated $6.0 million from Thursday night’s domestic opening shows at 3,300 locations, marking a strong start to the weekend. Here’s how that number stacks up against notable comparison titles:

• 19.8 percent ahead of War for the Planet of the Apes ($5.01 million)
• 39.5 percent ahead of Jason Bourne ($4.3 million)
• 9.1 percent ahead of Star Trek Beyond ($5.5 million)
• 50 percent ahead of Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation ($4.0 million)

Meanwhile, Teen Titans GO! to the Movies earned $1.025 million from its first shows, setting the stage for what should be a very healthy performance over the weekend. Comparisons:

• 13.9 percent ahead of The Emoji Movie ($900,000)
• 57.7 percent ahead of Captain Underpants ($650,000)

Check out Boxoffice’s weekend forecast for further analysis on the new releases, and follow us on Twitter throughout the weekend for further updates.

The post Weekend Estimates: ‘Mission: Impossible – Fallout’ Gunning for $60M+ Debut; ‘Teen Titans’ Toon Up $11M+ Start appeared first on BoxOffice Pro.

Monday Update:

Mission: Impossible – Fallout earned a confirmed $61.2 million opening.

Total box office this weekend earned $155.6 million, a 9 percent drop from last weekend but up 8 percent from the same frame last year.

Year-to-date box office stands at $7.32 billion, up 8.3 percent from last year, down slightly from the +8.5 percent after last weekend.

Our full table of weekend actuals is below, after our Sunday update with fuller analysis.

Sunday Update:

There was little fallout for the Mission: Impossible franchise, as the sixth installment Mission: Impossible – Fallout debuted to $61.5 million this weekend. In dollars, that’s the Paramount franchise’s highest opening, besting 2000’s Mission: Impossible II.

Adjusted for ticket price inflation, though, it’s almost the opposite story. It actually becomes the franchise’s second lowest opener, ranking only ahead of 2011’s Ghost Protocol. (And that was the only installment to open in December, a month when most films besides Star Wars traditionally open lower.)

Riding on a wave of sensational reviews, the sequel’s sizzling Rotten Tomatoes “Fresh” rating of 97 percent provided it an extra boost that created added excitement for moviegoers who have been promised what some critics have described as the best entry in the series yet.

55% of the audience was male, while 59% were over age 35. It’s also the series’ first installment to earn an “A” CinemaScore from audiences.

Coming in second is Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, which dipped 57 percent in its sophomore frame to $15.0 million. That’s a significantly steeper drop than 2008’s first Mamma Mia!, which fell just 36 percent in its second weekend. Universal’s sequel has earned $70.4 million through its second frame, higher than the original through the same point in dollars but 13 percent behind when adjusting for ticket price inflation.

Last weekend’s top title The Equalizer 2 dropped to third in its sophomore frame, falling 61 percent to $14.0 million. That gives Sony’s R-rated Denzel Washington action sequel $64.2 million after two frames, putting it almost exactly even with the first Equalizer through the same point, although running 11 percent behind when adjusting for ticket price inflation. The film suffered stiff competition from the male-driven Fallout this weekend.

In fourth place, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation had another decent hold, dropping 48 percent from last weekend’s total to $12.3 million. The Sony animated threequel now has a very good $119.2 million after three weekends (including previews for Amazon Prime members held prior to its wide release), the highest of the three installments through that point. However, it’s running a slight 5 percent behind Hotel Transylvania 2 when adjusting for ticket price inflation.

Opening a bit lower than expected in fifth place is Teen Titans Go! To the Movies, which debuted to $10.5 million. The animated feature – a spinoff of the Cartoon Network series (itself based on a DC comic book) – which made $4.25 million on Friday, including Thursday night previews. It proved more frontloaded than many had anticipated, suggesting the film’s core fanbase came out of the gate for the Warner Bros. Animation release.

The continued strength of both Hotel Transylvania 3 and Incredibles 2 also likely put a dent in the film’s earnings, as families with younger children looking for an animated movie may have opted for the more familiar titles. 41 percent of the audience was under age 18. On the plus side, the film earned a very good 93 percent “Fresh” rating on Rotten Tomatoes, which could give it legs in the weeks ahead.

Sixth place went to Disney-Marvel’s Ant-Man and the Wasp, which took in $8.4 million in its fourth weekend of release, a 49% decline. The MCU installment now has $183.1 million, surpassing the $180.2 million total of 2015’s original Ant-Man.

Limited Release:

After debuting in 14 theaters last weekend, the critically-acclaimed Blindspotting expanded to 523 locations with an estimated $1.3 million, giving it a so-so per-theater average of $2,533. The Lionsgate/Summit release’s total is $1.7 million.

Expanding to 158 theaters in its third weekend, A24’s Eighth Grade had another strong frame with an estimated $1.31 million, giving it a very good per-screen average of $8,339. The indie hit directed by comedian and YouTube personality Bo Burnham now has a total of $2.96 million and expands nationwide next weekend.

Overseas Update:

Mission: Impossible – Fallout opened with $92 million in 36 markets, led by South Korea with $24.6 million. The title’s global opening is $153.5 million, the best for the series yet. The film will open in China on August 31, and France (where it primarily takes place) on August 1.

Incredibles 2 just barely misses the billion dollar mark this weekend and should likely reach it on Monday. The title earned $20.0 million in 41 markets this weekend, takings its overseas total to $423.7 million and its global total to $996.5 million.

Weekend Actuals (Domestic)

FRI, JUL. 27 – SUN, JUL. 29

Studio Weekend Estimates (Domestic)

FRI, JUL. 27 – SUN, JUL. 29

The post Weekend Actuals: ‘Mission: Impossible – Fallout’ Races to $61.2M; ‘Teen Titans Go!’ Debuts with $10.4M appeared first on BoxOffice Pro.

On Monday, Incredibles 2 hit the $1 billion mark worldwide, becoming just the seventh animated film to do so after Frozen, Minions, Toy Story 3, Despicable Me 3, Finding Dory, and Zootopia. It is also just the fifth Disney animated film to cross the milestone. 

Incredibles 2 has been a monumental performer since opening June 15, earning $574 million in North America and $430.9 million internationally to date. The sequel to 2006’s The Incredibles also boasts the largest domestic debut for an animated film ever with $182.7 million. Its global total stands at $1.005 billion.

Additionally, Incredibles 2 is the first animated film to hit $500 million in North America and the ninth highest-grossing film of all time. 

Overseas totals for the Disney-Pixar release include $53.5 million in China, $45 million in the UK, $37.1 million in Mexico, $33.8 million in Brazil, $32.7 million in Australia, and $30.4 million in France. It has yet to open in several major territories, including Japan (Aug 1), Spain (Aug 3), Germany, and Italy (both September).

The post ‘Incredibles 2’ Hits $1B Worldwide appeared first on BoxOffice Pro.

Their official press release:

LOS ANGELES (August 1, 2018) – “Mission: Impossible – Fallout” (in its second weekend of release) and newcomer “Disney’s Christopher Robin” (starring Ewan McGregor in the title role) are ruling Fandango’s weekend ticket sales and Fanticipation movie buzz index, garnering 83 and 82 points out of 100 Fanticipation points, respectively.

“Disney’s Christopher Robin” is outpacing “Peter Rabbit,” while the Mila Kunis-Kate McKinnon action-comedy, “The Spy Who Dumped Me,” is outpacing last August’s action-comedy, “The Hitman’s Bodyguard,” at the same point in the Fandango sales cycle.

According to a Fandango survey of more than 1,000 moviegoers planning to see “Christopher Robin”:

97% are excited to see Disney’s first live-action version of A. A. Milne’s beloved characters.

93% hope movies like this can help bring back childhood fun into adult lives.

83% identify themselves as Ewan McGregor fans.

“Hailed as one of the best action movies in a long time, ‘Mission: Impossible – Fallout’ looks to continue its domination of the box office this weekend,” says Fandango Managing Editor Erik Davis. “Families looking to escape the dog days of summer will find a cheery and soulful adventure with ‘Disney’s Christopher Robin,’ reuniting movie fans of all ages with their favorite Winnie the Pooh characters, who this time are tasked with rescuing an adult Christopher Robin.”

About Fandango

Fandango is the ultimate digital network for all things movies, serving more than 60 million unique visitors per month, according to comScore, with best-in-class movie information, ticketing to more than 30,000 U.S. screens, trailers and original video, home entertainment and fan merchandise. Its portfolio features leading online ticketers Fandango, MovieTickets.com and Flixster; world-renown movie review site Rotten Tomatoes; and Movieclips, the #1 movie trailers and content channel on YouTube. Fandango’s movie discovery and ticketing innovations can also be found on mobile, social, AI and voice platforms from Apple, Facebook, Google, Amazon, and others.  Fandango’s video on-demand service, FandangoNOW offers new release and catalog movies and next-day TV shows to more than 200 million connected, over-the-top (OTT) and mobile devices, while Fandango FanShop curates unique and exclusive fan gear and collectibles.  In Latin America, the company operates leading online ticketers Ingresso.com and Fandango Latin America.

About Fanticipation       

Known for having its finger on the pulse of moviegoers, Fandango’s movie buzz indicator, Fanticipation, provides statistical insight into the movies fans are planning to see in a given weekend. Fanticipation scores (based on a 1 to 100-point scale) are calculated via an algorithm of Fandango’s advance ticket sales, website and mobile traffic, and social media engagement. Fanticipation is not intended as a forecast of the weekend box office; it is a snapshot of movie fan sentiment. Fandango is the ultimate digital network for all things movies, reaching more than 60 million unique visitors per month across its portfolio of digital properties, according to comScore.

The post Fandango: ‘Christopher Robin’ Outpacing ‘Peter Rabbit’ As ‘The Spy Who Dumped Me’ Trends Above ‘Hitman’s Bodyguard’ In Pre-Sales appeared first on BoxOffice Pro.

With today’s grosses, Universal’s Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom crossed the $400 million mark at the North American box office, making it the second-highest release in studio history in North America (after the first Jurassic World). With an international total to date of $846.7 million and a global total of $1.248 billion, it’s also the third highest-grossing movie worldwide in Universal’s history after Jurassic World and Fast and Furious 7. In China alone, the sequel took in an impressive $260 million.

Additionally, with today’s box office totals from all current Universal releases – including Fallen Kingdom, Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, Skyscraper, and The First Purge – the studio has officially topped $2 billion at the international box office for just the fourth time in its history. 

While Fallen Kingdom’s final domestic total is slated to come in sharply below Jurassic World’s $652.2 million, this is nonetheless a hugely successful performance for a film that essentially no one expected to perform at the record-breaking level of its predecessor. For 2018, Fallen Kingdom currently stands as the fourth highest-grossing title domestically, the third-highest globally, and the second-highest internationally. In addition, it now sits at No. 32 on the list of top grossers of all time in North America, just edging out Disney’s Frozen ($400.73 million).

The post ‘Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom’ Crosses $400M Domestic appeared first on BoxOffice Pro.

Friday Update: Disney reports this morning that Christopher Robin brought in an estimated $1.5 million from Thursday night’s opening shows. For comparison purposes, that comes in 15 percent ahead of A Wrinkle In Time ($1.3 million) and 92 percent ahead of The BFG ($780,000). Other weekend comps like Peter Rabbit and, notably, Pete’s Dragon did not hold Thursday night opening shows.

The Spy Who Dumped Me earned $950,000 for Lionsgate last night, coming in at less than half of Bad Moms‘ $2.0 million and somewhat ahead of Rough Night‘s $700,000.

Fox’s The Darkest Minds posted $550,000 in its start — half of If I Stay‘s $1.1 million August debut four years ago and slightly ahead of The 5th Wave‘s $480,000 January start in 2016.

Meanwhile, Paramount’s Mission: Impossible – Fallout remains expected to give Robin a fight for first place in the former’s second weekend of play.

Follow Boxoffice throughout the weekend for further updates.

The post Thursday Night Report: ‘Christopher Robin’ Earns $1.5M Debut; ‘The Spy Who Dumped Me’ Scores $950K; ‘The Darkest Minds’ Posts $550K appeared first on BoxOffice Pro.

In what was originally expected to be a neck-and-neck weekend, one film broke away from the pack, as Mission: Impossible Fallout earned $35.0M. That’s higher than its Saturday studio estimate of $33.0M.

After leading last weekend, Paramount’s Tom Cruise sequel dropped only -42% in its sophomore frame. Among the six Mission: Impossible installments, that’s the second-best sophomore weekend hold. Only December 2011’s Ghost Protocol, with -32% in its first post-holidays weekend, fared better.

Disney’s Christopher Robin, which was projected to go toe to toe for the top spot, fell slightly behind pre-release expectations with $25.0M. That’s below Saturday’s studio estimate of $27.7M.

It’s also Disney’s lowest opening (discounting the studio’s nature documentaries) since Pete’s Dragon in August 2016.

On the other hand, Robin‘s opening alone is still about as high as the entire cumulative gross of Disney’s previous installment featuring the characters. 2011’s fully animated Winnie the Pooh opened to $7.8M, en route to $26.6M total.

Robin‘s audience was 60% families, 56% female, and 39% under age 16. They gave the film an “A” average CinemaScore.

Lionsgate’s action comedy The Spy Who Dumped Me started with $12.3M, about in line with industry expectations.

Among similar titles, that’s higher than Rough Night ($8.0M) and The House ($8.7M), but slightly lower than Hot Pursuit ($13.9M) and A Bad Moms Christmas ($16.7M).

The audience was 62% female and 70% older than 25.

[Read our interview with The Spy Who Dumped Me director Susanna Fogel here.]

Elsewhere at the box office, Fox’s young adult sci-fi The Darkest Minds opened behind its already-low expectations, starting in 8th place with $5.8M.

This would seem to instantly kill any possibility for a potential sequel, as had occurred with many other fantastical young-adult films this decade such as Percy Jackson, The Maze Runner, Divergent, or The Hunger Games.

Compared to similar titles, Minds opened lower than The 5th Wave ($10.3M) but higher than The Space Between Us ($3.7M).

[Read our interview with The Darkest Minds producer Shawn Levy here.]

Last but not least — in fact, the opposite of least — is Black Panther. Disney’s superhero juggernaut, originally released in February, finally crosses $700M domestically on its 25th weekend of release.

The film is just barely playing in theaters at this point, at only 25 screens in the entire country. (Although that was actually a slight increase from 15 theaters the weekend prior.) And the film had earned less than $100K for each of the past six weekends.

But slow and steady wins the race. The film becomes only the third film to reach $700M total, after Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Avatar. It also seems almost certain to ultimately finish higher than this summer’s Avengers: Infinity War, despite that title opening higher than Panther.

Adjusted for ticket price inflation, Panther is the #30 highest grossing film ever. (Four other 21st century films are ahead of it on that measure: Force Awakens, Avatar, Jurassic World, and the original Avengers.)

Total box office this weekend is $138.5M. That’s 11% behind last weekend, but 12% ahead of this same weekend last year.

Year-to-date box office stands at $7.54B. That’s 8.2% ahead of this same date last year, slightly down from the +8.3% following last weekend.

The post Studio Weekend Estimates: ‘Mission Impossible – Fallout’ Wins Again w/ $35.0M; ‘Black Panther’ Crosses $700M appeared first on BoxOffice Pro.

Saturday Update: Reports of The Meg‘s domestic under-performance have been greatly exaggerated as the campy end-of-summer pic exploded with $16.5 million on opening day Friday, including Thursday night’s take. That sets the weekend on course for what should be in the vicinity of a $40 million debut.

Key comparisons for the domestic first day are listed below as the film is now on course to become the biggest shark movie since 2004’s Shark Tale ($47.6 million opening / $160.9 million total), and likely the second biggest live-action shark flick of all-time behind the original masterpiece, Jaws ($260 million before adjusting for inflation).

Audiences were clearly craving one last ounce of summer popcorn fun in ways pre-release metrics simply didn’t catch. The Meg consistently performed at very modest levels across social media and in traditional industry tracking based on comparison titles, giving little indication that an opening weekend far north of $20 million was possible until actual pre-sales suggested an over-performance could be on the table. Clearly, it was.

Domestic comparisons thus far, followed by an overseas update from the studio:

• 78 percent ahead of Skyscraper‘s opening day ($9.25 million)
• 43 percent ahead of Rampage‘s opening day ($11.54 million)
• 140 percent ahead of The Shallows‘ opening day ($6.88 million)
• 153 percent ahead of Into the Storm‘s opening day ($6.53 million)
• 183 percent ahead of Deep Blue Sea‘s opening day ($5.83 million) / 55 percent ahead when adjusted for 2018 ticket prices ($10.63 million)

Internationally, Warner Bros. reports the film had a similarly strong debut in China where it opened to $16.2 million on Friday and looks to be around $16.1 million for Saturday, giving it a two-day total of $32.4 million in that country alone. Excluding China, international estimates stand at $26.7 million for Friday with a running cume of $34.5 million. The film is currently open in 42 markets.

Meanwhile, Mission: Impossible – Fallout added $5.3 million to begin its third frame, standing at an excellent $147.3 million domestically as it paces toward what is now expected to be around $19 million this weekend.

Slender Man posted $4.85 million on opening day as it heads toward a weekend north of $10 million, while BlacKkKlansman earned a strong $3.6 million from 1,512 locations and should be able to lock down close to $10 million for its debut frame.

Early weekend estimates are below with updated studio estimates to follow on Sunday.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, AUG. 10 – SUN, AUG. 12

===

Friday Update: Warner Bros. reports today that The Meg earned a strong $4 million start from Thursday night’s opening shows. That slightly more than doubles the $1.95 million of Skyscraper last month, indicating the film could be on pace to exceed industry expectations over the weekend. The caveat at this every early stage of the weekend is that The Meg has been a heavily buzzed-about film among genre fans due to its source 1997 novel, so some front-loading could be at play. That’s despite recent social media tracking not indicating as much of a breakout as other models, leaving projections volatile until we get stronger idea of Friday proper business.

Overseas, the studio updates with an estimated $7.2 million running tally through Thursday — including $6.3 million from 29 markets. In addition to that, early estimates position The Meg at a $16 million opening day (Friday) in China, which includes midnight shows. WB notes that the film is comparing favorably ahead of films like San Andreas, Skyscraper, and Geostorm.

Back in the States, Slender Man took in $1 million last night as it contended with the giant shark movie. By comparison, that comes in behind the $1.88 million of Don’t Breathe and $1.8 million of Lights Out two summers ago.

Wednesday’s opener Dog Days now stands at an estimated $1 million two-day total heading into the weekend.

Meanwhile, BlacKkKlansman also debuts this weekend but no Thursday night grosses were reported at the time of this publishing.

On the holdover front, Mission: Impossible – Fallout will remain a strong foe near the top of the market in its third weekend. Check out our weekend forecast for further analysis.

The post Weekend Estimates: ‘The Meg’ Breaks Out to $40M Domestic Launch; ‘Mission: Impossible – Fallout’ Adds $19M; ‘BlacKkKlansman’ Strong Near $10M appeared first on BoxOffice Pro.

The Meg is a monster.

Though pre-release tracking had the Megalodon flick finishing in the realm of $20-$25 million this weekend, the Warner Bros. release blew all predictions out of the water with an estimated $44.5 million. That makes it the third hit shark movie in as many years after 2016’s The Shallows and last year’s 47 Meters Down, though The Meg‘s opening weekend was on an entirely different scale, as those films debuted to a relatively compact $16.8 million and $11.2 million, respectively. Of course, The Meg was also produced on a much larger budget – reports have it costing in the range of $150 million – so the studio certainly needed it to make a splash of this size. Additionally, it also boasted a much higher screen count (4,118), making it the second-widest August release of all time after 2016’s Suicide Squad. The per-screen average for the film was $10,806.

The Meg‘s significant overperformance this weekend caught the industry off-guard, as the Jason Statham starrer didn’t have the kind of metrics (industry tracking, social media) that would have indicated a debut anywhere near $40 million. Clearly, moviegoers’ appetite for an over-the-top shark movie in the dog days of summer was greatly underestimated. Not adjusted for inflation, the opening was in the ballpark of Alien vs. Predator, which debuted with $38.2 million during roughly the same period in 2004 and finished with $80.2 million in North America. Like that film, The Meg proved to be basically critic-proof given (its Rotten Tomatoes rating is 49 percent), and its Cinemascore was a much healthier “B+,” indicating general satisfaction among its opening-day audience.

Despite being dethroned by The Meg, Mission: Impossible – Fallout boasted another strong hold in its third weekend, dropping just 43 percent to an estimated $20 million in second place. As third weekends go, that’s more or less in line with every Mission: Impossible entry aside from Mission: Impossible III, all of which dropped less than 40 percent in their respective third frames. With a very strong $161.9 million after 17 days of release, Fallout has proven to be one of the summer’s leggiest tentpoles and has a good chance of topping $200 million by the end of its run.

Finishing in third place in its sophomore frame, Disney’s Christopher Robin took in an estimated $12.4 million, dropping 49 percent from its $24.5 million opening. That’s a decent hold for the family-oriented late-summer release, which is performing similarly to the studio’s Pete’s Dragon as well as 2015’s Paddington. Those films had grossed $42.9 million and $39.9 million, respectively, by the same point, and they finished with identical domestic totals of $76.2 million. Looking ahead, Christopher Robin is looking at relatively smooth sailing for the rest of the summer, as no other major family releases are slated to hit theaters through Labor Day.

Edging its way into fourth place was Sony/ScreenGems’ Slender Man, which took in an estimated $11.3 million in 2,358 locations in its debut frame. That’s a shade higher than expected for the low-budget horror film and a decent total considering this weekend’s competition from The Meg and the fact that its Rotten Tomatoes score is a dismal 15 percent. That said, all signs point to a brief theatrical run for the supernatural horror flick, as audiences awarded it an not-so-encouraging “D-” Cinemascore. Look for this one to burn out quickly before hitting home-viewing formats.

Opening in just 1,512 locations, Spike Lee’s acclaimed BlacKkKlansman debuted in fifth place with an estimated $10.7 million, giving the Focus Features release a healthy per-screen average of $7,142. The latest release from the iconic director benefitted from months of buzz leading up to its debut, with the film winning the Grand Prix prize at the Cannes Film Festival back in May and earning plaudits from critics, many of whom are calling it one of Lee’s greatest achievements. Indeed, the film currently boasts a sizzling 97 percent “Fresh” rating on Rotten Tomatoes, in addition to an “A-” Cinemascore from audiences.

In the scheme of Lee’s career, this is his biggest opening weekend since 2006’s Inside Man ($28.9 million), though that film benefitted from a star-studded cast (Denzel Washington, Jodie Foster) and a much-wider release pattern. It’s also his third-biggest opening weekend of all time, coming in just behind The Original Kings of Comedy, which debuted to $11 million in 847 theaters in August of 2000. Indeed, this is a rare mainstream hit for the director, whose highest-grossing title after Inside Man ($88.5 million domestic) was Malcolm X, which debuted to $9.8 million and finished with $48.1 million in 1990-91. BlacKkKlansman is certainly Lee’s most-talked-about film in years, much of that owing to its zeitgeist-capturing themes. It will be interesting to see how this one plays out in the weeks ahead, but this is a strong start.

Dropping to sixth was Lionsgate’s’ The Spy Who Dumped Me, which dipped 45 percent to an estimated $6.6 million in its sophomore frame. That gives the Kate McKinnon-Mila Kunis comedy a so-so $24.5 million after ten days of release.

In seventh place, Universal’s Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again passed the $100 million mark after taking in an estimated $5.8 million in weekend number four. With a domestic total of $103.8 million to date, the sequel is running just about even with the first Mamma Mia! at the same point in its run, though with higher weekend-to-weekend declines it will likely finish significantly below that film’s final domestic total of $144.1 million. Nonetheless, it’s a good performance for the musical follow-up, which has thus far grossed over $250 million worldwide.

In eighth, The Equalizer 2 took in an estimated $5.5 million in its fourth weekend, giving the Denzel Washington action sequel a healthy $89.6 million to date. It’s primed to finish with roughly the same total as the first film, which brought in $101.5 million domestically.

Rounding out the Top 10 are Sony’s hit animated threequel Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation and Disney-Marvel’s Ant-Man and the Wasp, which grossed an estimated $5.1 million and $4 million, respectively, in their sixth weekends. Summer Vacation‘s domestic total now stands at $146.8 million; Ant-Man and the Wasp, meanwhile, crossed the $200 million mark on Friday and has a current total of $203.5 million in North America. The superhero sequel currently sits in sixteenth place on the list of all-time MCU grossers domestically and is within striking distance of 2013’s Thor: The Dark World ($206.3 million).

Finishing outside the Top 10 was Dog Days, which took in an estimated $2.6 million in 2,442 theaters. That gives the canine-oriented rom-com a rather dreary per-screen average of $1,077, which ranks as one of the worst for a wide release this year. The total for the LD Entertainment release, which got an early jump on the weekend by opening on Wednesday, is $3.6 million over the five-day period.

Also outside the Top 10, A24’s Eighth Grade crossed the $10 million threshold with an estimated $1.6 million in its fifth weekend of release. The teenage dramedy written and directed by Bo Burnham now has $10.09 million in the bank and stands as one of the summer’s indie success stories alongside such films as Sorry To Bother You and Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

Overseas Update: 

The Meg dominated the weekend internationally as well, taking in a very good $97 million in 42 territories, including $50.3 million in China. That gives it a worldwide opening total of $141.3 million.

Mission: Impossible – Fallout took in another $38.4 million in 59 overseas markets this weekend for an international total of $275.6 million and a global haul of $437.5 million. Cumes include $46.4 million in Korea, $22.4 million in the U.K.,  $18.7 million in Japan, and $14.4 million in France. It’s slated to drop in China on August 31.

Continuing its record-breaking run here and abroad is Disney’s Incredibles 2, which grossed an estimated $14.6 million overseas this weekend. Having effectively surpassed Toy Story 3‘s global total of $1.067 billion, it is now the highest-grossing Pixar release of all time worldwide with a worldwide cume of $1.088 billion.

Studio Weekend Estimates (Domestic)

FRI, AUG. 10 – SUN, AUG. 12

The post Studio Weekend Estimates: ‘The Meg’ Scores a Super-Sized $44.5M; ‘BlacKkKlansman’ Opens Strong w/ $10.7M appeared first on BoxOffice Pro.

Saturday Update: Warner’s Crazy Rich Asians continued its excellent early performance with another $7.26 million earned on Friday, giving the strongly reviewed rom-com a running three-day tally of $16.03 million.  With very positive word of mouth and minimal competition in tow, we’re projecting the film to land around $23.6 million for the three-day weekend, which would give it close to $32.4 million for its overall five-day launch — an excellent start for what should be a leggy run into the Labor Day corridor, and well ahead of expectations a few short weeks ago.

WB claimed the runner-spot on Friday as well with The Meg adding another $5.8 million, down an expected 65 percent from opening day last week and bringing its eight-day domestic total to $68.4 million. Its sophomore frame is on pace to net around $20.5 million.

STX’s Mile 22 debuted in third place yesterday with an estimated $5.26 million. That’s a bit below key comparison titles like Den of Thieves ($5.634 million) and American Assassin ($5.784 million), even more notable given the late summer debut. Given mixed reviews, it remains to be seen if weekend matinee business will uptick enough for the thriller to meet weekend expectations, but our projections now stand in the conservative range with a landing around $14.2 million.

Alpha, meanwhile, came in a bit ahead of expectations with $3.362 million on Friday. While coming in below the $4.37 million first day of Max three summers ago, that’s still a better showing than final pre-release tracking had indicated would be the case. A weekend between $9-10 million appears likely.

Last but not least, Mission: Impossible – Fallout rounded off the top five yesterday with $3.0 million and an updated domestic haul of $173.2 million. Although down from last Friday a bit more than expected, the strongly received blockbuster continues to outpace its predecessor, Rogue Nation, and is on course for a fourth weekend tally in the realm of $11.5 million.

Early weekend estimates are below. Studio estimates to follow on Sunday.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, AUG. 17 – SUN, AUG. 19

===

Friday Update: Warner Bros. reports that Crazy Rich Asians added an estimated $3.76 million on Thursday, its second full day of release, to stand at $8.77 million since its mid-week opening.

Debuting last night, Mile 22 scored an estimated $1.0 million. By comparison, that bests the $950,000 of Den of Thieves earlier this year, as well as American Assassin‘s $920,000 last fall.

Meanwhile, Alpha posted $525,000 from shows beginning at 5pm yesterday. Comparisons are rough at this time, but that’s similar to the $500,000 midsummer Thursday start of Max three years ago, while falling shy of Ben-Hur‘s $900,000 two Augusts ago.

Follow Boxoffice throughout the weekend for further updates.

The post Weekend Estimates: ‘Crazy Rich Asians’ Paces Strong ($30M+ 5-Day); ‘The Meg’ Adds $20M+; ‘Mile 22’ Modest ($14M+); ‘Alpha’ Eyes $9M+ appeared first on BoxOffice Pro.

Crazy Rich Asians had a crazy rich weekend. The heavily-hyped release led by a cast of Asian actors – arguably the first such film from a major studio since 1993’s The Joy Luck Club – grossed an estimated $25.2 million over the three-day period and $34 million since opening on Wednesday, bringing it in at the high end of expectations. Further down the Top 10, new wide releases Mile 22 and Alpha debuted to less impressive numbers.

After weeks of steadily-building hype for the Warner Bros. comedy, Crazy Rich Asians made good on its promise, helped in no small part by an all-encompassing media blitz, strong social media activity, and overwhelmingly positive early buzz. It also had little in the way of competition, with no other major studio comedies currently making waves at the box office. Debuting in 3,384 theaters, the film boasted a strong per-screen average of $7,457 and skewed heavily female, with women making up 68 percent of the opening weekend audience.

Based on audience exit surveys (opening day audiences gave the film an “A” Cinemascore) and strong reviews (it’s currently 92 percent “Fresh” at Rotten Tomatoes), Crazy Rich Asians could well be in for a leggy run in the weeks ahead, with positive word-of-mouth and the historic nature of the release serving to boost its prospects. Indeed, reports of individuals and organizations buying out theaters and organizing large groups to see the film have been widespread. It’s a phenomenon that certainly helped strengthen the opening weekend numbers but could also have a ripple effect going forward, as the film’s cultural importance continues to be a rallying cry for both new and repeat viewers.

Slipping to second place was last weekend’s big winner The Meg, which took in an estimated $21.1 million in its sophomore frame for a grand total of $83.7 million after ten days. That’s a 53 percent drop for the Warner Bros. shark thriller, which took industry observers by surprise when it debuted to a much better-than-expected $45.4 million last weekend. The $150 million release (co-financed by Beijing-based Gravity Pictures) is now assured a domestic gross north of $100 million, in addition to international receipts that have already topped $ million through Sunday.

Debuting in third place was STX’s Mile 22, the latest film from star Mark Wahlberg and director Peter Berg, who previously worked together on Lone Survivor, Deepwater Horizon, and Patriots Day. With an estimated $13.6 million, the film improved on the wide opening of Patriots Day ($11.6 million) but came in significantly lower than both Deepwater Horizon ($20.2 million) and Lone Survivor ($37.8 million). Audiences gave this one a “B-” Cinemascore but it was less-beloved by critics, who largely panned it (the Rotten Tomatoes score is 20%). The audience breakdown was heavily male (60%) and skewed older, with 73% over the age of 25.

Compared to other recent male-driven releases, Mile 22 took in less than last year’s Tom Cruise vehicle American Made ($16.8 million) and the Gerard Butler actioner Den of Thieves ($15.2 million), though it did come in a tick higher Death Wish, the revenge reboot starring Bruce Willis that debuted to $13 million back in March. On the plus side, the film’s reported budget is a relatively modest $35 million.

The next two films on the list, Mission: Impossible – Fallout and Alpha, came in neck and neck this weekend.

The late-summer blockbuster Mission: Impossible – Fallout dipped about 45 percent to an estimated $10.5 million in its fourth weekend of play. That gives the Tom Cruise franchise entry an impressive $180.7 million thus far, putting it just a hair below the first Mission: Impossible‘s $180.9 million final gross back in 1996 and giving it a decent shot of topping Mission: Impossible II‘s $215.4 million cume when all is said and done. Not adjusting for inflation, that would make it the highest-grossing installment of the franchise to date.

Also taking an estimated $10.5 million was Sony’s Alpha, which debuted slightly better than projected. The Sony historical action/drama boasts a good “B+” Cinemascore and an 84 percent “Fresh” rating on Rotten Tomatoes, which could have helped push it a bit higher this weekend.

Alpha‘s prehistoric setting, subtitled dialogue (the characters speak in an unidentifiable language), and lack of marquee actors (it stars the X-Men franchise’s Kodi-Smith McPhee) were always going to make this film a difficult sell for mainstream audiences, so it could be counted as a small victory that it debuted as high as it did. The last time we saw a major action film set in prehistoric times was 2008’s 10,000 BC, but that title benefitted from the name value of Independence Day director Roland Emmerich and a tentpole-style marketing campaign. It debuted with $35.8 million and finished with $94.7 million domestically.

In sixth place is Disney’s Christopher Robin, which dipped just 32 percent to an estimated $8.9 million in weekend three. The family release now has $66.9 million after 17 days, which puts it 18 percent ahead of Pete’s Dragon by the same point ($54.8 million) and 25 percent ahead of Paddington ($50.3 million). The budget on the film is unknown, though some reports put it in the $70 million range.

Finishing in seventh in its sophomore frame was BlacKkKlansman, which took in an estimated $7 million this weekend. That’s a drop of 35 percent for the acclaimed Spike Lee film, which added nearly 300 theaters after debuting to $10.8 million last weekend. The Focus release now has a good $23 million after ten days, which already puts in sixth place on the list of Lee’s top-grossing films of all time domestically, just behind Do the Right Thing ($27.5 million) and just ahead of He Got Game ($21.5 million) not adjusting for inflation.

Last weekend’s teen-driven horror film Slender Man dropped to eighth place in its sophomore frame, grossing $4.9 million for a total of $20.7 million domestically. That’s a fairly steep drop from its $11.3 million debut last weekend but not an unexpected one, as these types of horror releases are generally heavily frontloaded and tend to fade quickly.

Rounding out the Top 10, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation took in an estimated $3.6 million in its seventh frame for a cume of $153.8 million domestically, while Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again finished in tenth place with an estimated $3.4 million in its fifth weekend and $111.2 million to date.

Overseas Update: 

With another $67 million internationally this weekend, Warner Bros.’  The Meg has crossed the $300 million mark worldwide, with $230.4 overseas and $83.8 million in North America. The $314.2 million total includes a very strong $30.5 million second weekend in China, bringing the film’s total in that country to $117.2 million.

Also chalking up a milestone was Mission: Impossible – Fallout, which crossed the $500 million mark worldwide after bringing in another $20.5 million overseas. Its international total now stands at $320.7 million and its global cume is $501.4 million.

Lastly, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation passed the $400 million mark globally this weekend following its debut in China, where it opened to $16.9 million. It now has $272.1 million internationally and $426 million worldwide.

Studio Weekend Estimates (Domestic)

FRI, AUG. 17 – SUN, AUG. 19

The post Studio Weekend Estimates: ‘Crazy Rich Asians’ Pops w/ $25.2M 3-Day, $34M 5-Day; ‘Mile 22’ Smuggles $13.6M appeared first on BoxOffice Pro.

Saturday Update: As expected, Warner Bros.’ Crazy Rich Asians is easily on pace to hold the first place throne in its second weekend, albeit with a far stronger hold than projected.

The studio reports the hugely successful rom-com earned another $7 million on Friday, down just 4 percent from the same day last week (its third day of release). With a robust $58.8 million in the domestic bank through ten days of play, the adaptation continues to excel with its appeal to under-served audiences. Asians‘ sophomore frame will land well north of $20 million (with a shot at $25 million), increasing 2018’s streak of weekends with at least one movie earning that amount to 29 straight frames (dating back to post-Super Bowl weekend in February).

The Meg added another $3.3 million yesterday to begin its third frame, down just 43 percent from the same day last week. With $95.6 million earned domestically, the surprise summer hit looks to bring in another $12 million+ this weekend.

Unfortunately, The Happytime Murders posted $3.95 million on opening day Friday (including Thursday’s night $950,000). The comedy is pacing to fall a bit short of expectations that had it pegged for a mid-teen millions weekend as it now looks to finish with around $10 million by Sunday’s end.

Meanwhile, A.X.L. bowed to $812,109 on opening day Friday. Global Road projects the weekend will end up around $2.6 million.

Early weekend estimates are below. Check back on Sunday for complete studio estimates.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, AUG. 24 – SUN, AUG. 26

===

Friday Update: STX reports this morning that The Happytime Murders took in an estimated $950,000 from last night’s first shows. For comparison purposes, here’s how that stacks up against similar films:

• 28 percent behind Tag ($1.325 million)
• 5 percent behind Game Night ($1.0 million)
• 71 percent behind Sausage Party ($3.25 million)
• 7 percent ahead of A Million Ways to Die In the West ($890,000)

No Thursday earnings have been reported for A.X.L. as it also debuts this weekend. As previously reported, Crazy Rich Asians is widely expected to repeat in the top spot at the box office for the penultimate weekend of summer.

Follow Boxoffice throughout the weekend for further updates.

The post Weekend Estimates: ‘Crazy Rich Asians’ Eyes Strong $23.5M+ Second Frame; ‘Happytime Murders’ ($10M) & ‘A.X.L.’ ($2M+) Debut Softly appeared first on BoxOffice Pro.

Crazy Rich Asians had an extraordinary second weekend at the domestic box office, with the breakout hit bringing in an estimated $25 million in its sophomore frame. That’s a roughy 5 percent dip from the film’s $26.5 million three-day opening last weekend, making it by far the smallest second-weekend drop among 2018 studio releases and one of the smallest second-weekend drops ever for a wide release debuting outside the holiday season. Meanwhile, STX’s The Happytime Murders underperformed while Global Road’s A.X.L. struggled to find an audience as it barely managed a Top 10 debut despite opening on over 1,700 screens.

With $76.8 million in the bank after just 12 days of release, Crazy Rich Asians has officially surpassed all expectations as it continues to dominate all releases at the North American box office. The film has not only effectively tapped into a gravely underserved audience (namely Asian-American moviegoers) but has clearly broken out beyond that, with word-of-mouth and repeat viewings propelling it to an incredible second-weekend performance of the sort we rarely see today. The Warner Bros. release is now set to easily become the eighteenth title of 2018 to top $100 million, though with this minuscule drop there’s no telling how high it might go beyond that. While industry observers had expected a strong second-weekend performance, few anticipated that it would hold quite this well.

Crazy Rich Asians is also notable for being arguably the sole breakout hit among this year’s adult-driven studio comedies, which have been unusually weak; indeed, none have topped $100 million (or even $70 million) before now. That makes it the top-grossing comedy of 2018 so far after less than two weeks of release, and indeed, it’s set to potentially double (if not more than double) 2018’s previous highest-grossing comedy Game Night, which topped out at just over $69 million in North America after debuting to $17 million back in February. This makes Crazy Rich Asians not only one of the biggest movie stories of 2018, but one of the most exciting box office stories as well, as it performs beyond all expectations and appears primed to play strongly well into the fall.

Warner Bros. maintained its hold on the top two spots this weekend, as its surprise-hit shark thriller The Meg again finished in second place, bringing in an estimated $13 million (a drop of just 38 percent) for a total of $105.3 million after three weeks of release. That makes it the seventeenth release of 2018 to top the $100 million mark domestically. Incidentally, while the 2018 box office is up nearly ten percent over last year, the number of $100 million-plus releases is down a bit from 2017, when 20 films had reached that milestone by the same point.

Debuting lower than expected in third place was STX’s The Happytime Murders, which opened to an estimated $10 million on 3,256 screens. That makes it the lowest post-Bridesmaids opening ever for star Melissa McCarthy, whose Life of the Party similarly came in at the lower end of expectations when it debuted to $17.8 million back in May (before going on to earn a total of $52.8 million in North America).

The R-rated Muppet comedy (directed by Jim Henson’s son Brian) wasn’t helped by poor reviews (its average currently sits at 22% on Rotten Tomatoes) and presumably poor word-of-mouth, as opening weekend audiences awarded it a mere “C-” according to Cinemascore. Observers had been expecting a debut in the mid-teens, but after opening to just $3.95 million on Friday, it became clear the film wouldn’t come near that amount.

Remaining in fourth place was Mission: Impossible – Fallout, which grossed an estimated $8 million in its fifth weekend for a total of $193.9 million, bringing the franchise installment ever closer to the $200 million mark. Look for the Paramount release to surpass Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation‘s $195 million total by next weekend.

Fifth place went to Disney’s Christopher Robin, which dipped just 28 percent to an estimated $6.3 million. The family release now has $77.6 million after four weeks of release.

In sixth, last weekend’s newcomer Mile 22 dipped significantly to an estimated $6 million in weekend two, giving the latest Mark Wahlberg-Peter Berg collaboration just $25.1 million after ten days of release. Though it should surpass the $31.8 million final domestic gross of their last film together, 2016’s Patriots Day, it’s clearly not the franchise-starter they were hoping for.

In seventh, another freshman release from last weekend, Studio 8’s Alpha, took in $5.6 million, representing a roughly 46 percent drop from its slightly better-than-expected $10.3 million debut. The historical adventure saga, which takes place 20,000 years in the past and has its characters speaking in a fictional language, scored with critics but seems to have been too difficult a sell for audiences. Its total now stands at $20.1 million after ten days of release – not a great result considering the film’s reported budget of $50 million.

Eighth place went to BlacKkKlansman, which posted another strong hold in its third weekend with an estimated $5.3 million. That’s a mere 27 percent drop from last weekend, giving the Spike Lee release a domestic total of $32 million so far. It now sits in fifth place among Lee’s films at the domestic box office, having surpassed 1989’s Do the Right Thing (not adjusting for inflation) and soon to top the $32.4 million gross of 1991’s Jungle Fever.

Landing in ninth place was the sci-fi/adventure film A.X.L., which took in an estimated $2.9 million from 1,710 locations in its opening frame. While that’s certainly not a great result, it’s also not a surprising one, as no one had predicted an opening anywhere above the low-single-digit millions for the film. It doesn’t help that it scored poorly with critics (it currently sits at 22% on Rotten Tomatoes), though it did fare better with audiences, who awarded the film a “B+” average via Cinemascore. As it happens, the film’s release comes amidst news regarding distributor Global Road’s financial issues, with the company reportedly in danger of declaring bankruptcy. The studio’s previous releases include this year’s Show Dogs, Midnight Sun, and Hotel Artemis.

Rounding out the Top 10 is the teen-targeted horror flick Slender Man, which grossed an estimated $2.7 million in weekend three. The total for the $10 million Sony release now stands at a decent $25.4 million.

Believe it or not, the weekend also saw two other semi-wide releases, though neither registered as much more than a blip. Bleecker Street’s modern-day update of Papillon starring Charlie Hunnam brought in an estimated $1.1 million from 544 screens, while ArtAffects’ Beautifully Broken took in an estimated $453K on 651 screens through Saturday (the distributor hadn’t provided a Sunday estimate as of press time).

Limited Release:

The acclaimed techno-thriller Searching starring John Cho debuted on nine screens this weekend and took in an estimated $360K, giving the Screen Gems release an excellent per-screen average of $40,000 – by far the highest of any film this weekend. This weekend’s result bodes well for the film’s wide expansion next Friday, where it’s slated to play on over 1,000 screens across North America.

Overseas Update:

The Meg continued its dominant run overseas this weekend, taking in another estimated $32.7 million for an international total of $303.3 million and a worldwide cume of $408.6 million. This includes a whopping $143 million in China, where it has cracked the Top 5 among U.S. releases in the country this year.

Speaking of China, Ant-Man and the Wasp had its debut in the country this weekend, where it took in an estimated $68 million. That makes the superhero sequel the fourth-highest opening ever for an MCU title in China and brings its international gross to $333 million and its worldwide cume to $544 million, thereby surpassing the $519.3 million global total of the first Ant-Man.

Crazy Rich Asians brought in an estimated $6 million overseas this weekend in 18 markets, which notably included a $1.8 million opening weekend in Singapore, where the film is set. Its international total now stands at $7.1 million.

Sunday’s Studio Weekend Estimates (Domestic)

FRI, AUG. 24 – SUN, AUG. 26